Ridge Of High Pressure Keeps on Trucking... Will The Tropics Stop It?

Tuesday Through Thursday: Heat Remains the Main Story

Strong upper-level ridging will remain centered over Arkansas through the middle of the week.

This will result in mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, very limited rainfall, and afternoon temperatures remaining in the 90s.

Heat index values will again reach dangerous levels, particularly during the afternoon hours. Even where an official Heat Advisory is not in effect, the combination of heat and humidity will make prolonged outdoor activities more difficult.

Residents should continue to practice heat safety by staying hydrated, taking frequent breaks from the heat, and limiting strenuous outdoor activity during the hottest part of the day.

What About Tropical Storm Edouard?

Tropical Storm Edouard will make landfall along the upper Texas coast Tuesday afternoon.

Despite its proximity to the region, Edouard is not expected to bring meaningful rainfall or cooler temperatures to Southwest Arkansas.

The strong ridge over Arkansas will keep the tropical system and its moisture primarily west and south of the state. As the system moves inland, it is expected to weaken while tracking toward central Texas.

Some areas farther west and south may eventually see an increase in moisture and rainfall, but Southwest Arkansas is expected to remain largely dry.

Friday Through the Weekend: A Few Storm Chances Return

By late week, the upper-level ridge will broaden across much of the southern and southeastern United States.

A combination of increasing low-level moisture and a weak boundary across the central United States could allow a few isolated showers or thunderstorms to develop, particularly across southern Arkansas.

Rain chances will generally remain low, around 10–30%, meaning most locations will likely remain dry.

If storms do develop, they will likely be isolated and driven primarily by daytime heating. A few locations could receive a brief downpour, but widespread beneficial rainfall is not expected.

The additional clouds and isolated precipitation could provide brief relief from the heat in localized areas, but the overall pattern will remain hot and dry.

Labor Day Weekend: Hot & Humid

The holiday weekend is currently shaping up to be hot and humid across Southwest Arkansas.

Even with a few isolated shower and thunderstorm chances, temperatures are expected to remain in the 90s.

The heat could become increasingly significant later in the weekend as another strong ridge begins developing across the southern Plains.

Longer-range guidance suggests this ridge could eventually expand eastward toward Arkansas, potentially bringing another period of more excessive heat during the middle of next week.

Drought & Rainfall Concerns

The ongoing lack of widespread rainfall remains an important part of the forecast.

Rainfall has been highly variable across the region, with some locations receiving little to no rain while others have picked up more meaningful totals.

The upcoming pattern does not currently favor a widespread, soaking rainfall event. Any rainfall through the weekend is expected to be scattered and highly localized.

This means drought and dry-condition concerns will continue to require monitoring, particularly if the ridge strengthens as currently projected.

Looking Ahead

The overall pattern favors continued above-average temperatures into next week.

A strong upper-level ridge may settle over Arkansas by the middle of next week, potentially producing another stretch of excessive heat with temperatures well into the 90s and elevated heat index values.

For now, the message is simple: September may have arrived, but summer isn't going anywhere just yet.