Southwest Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion Issued: July 6, 2026
A fairly typical summertime weather pattern will continue across Southwest Arkansas to begin the week. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Tuesday, with the greatest storm coverage expected during the afternoon and early evening hours. Widespread severe weather is not expected. However, the atmosphere will become quite unstable during the afternoon, meaning a few stronger thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Storm chances begin to decrease by Wednesday as an upper-level disturbance moves east of Arkansas. High pressure will then attempt to rebuild across the region, bringing hotter temperatures and increasing heat concerns by the end of the week.
Monday: Scattered Afternoon Storms
Monday morning will begin mainly quiet across Southwest Arkansas, although areas of patchy fog may develop around sunrise.
Attention then turns to the afternoon as an upper-level disturbance slowly moves southeast across Arkansas. Daytime heating combined with increasing atmospheric instability will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop.
Storm development is expected to begin during the mid-afternoon hours before gradually spreading southeast.
The primary concerns with stronger storms will include:
Gusty winds Frequent lightning Brief heavy rainfall
Atmospheric instability could climb to or exceed 2,500 J/kg during the afternoon. However, weak wind shear should limit the overall organization of thunderstorms.
Because of this, widespread severe weather is not expected, but an isolated strong storm cannot be completely ruled out.
Thunderstorm activity should quickly decrease Monday evening as daytime heating is lost.
Tuesday: Additional Storm Chances
Another round of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday.
Storm coverage currently appears lower compared to Monday, but isolated thunderstorms may still develop during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Similar to Monday, any stronger storm could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rainfall.
This will remain a typical summertime setup where some communities receive a downpour while nearby locations remain completely dry.
Wednesday: Storm Chances Decrease
The upper-level disturbance responsible for our early-week storm chances will finally move east of Arkansas by Wednesday.
As this occurs, thunderstorm coverage should decrease significantly across Southwest Arkansas.
An isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out, but most locations should remain dry.
Temperatures will begin trending warmer as sunshine increases.
Late Week: Heat Builds Again
Upper-level high pressure will begin rebuilding across the region Thursday and beyond.
As the ridge strengthens, afternoon temperatures will climb back into the 90s while humidity remains elevated.
Heat index values will begin increasing once again, potentially reaching hazardous levels in portions of Arkansas by Thursday afternoon.
The greatest initial heat concerns appear focused across the Arkansas River Valley and Delta regions. However, Southwest Arkansas will also experience increasingly hot and humid conditions heading toward the weekend.
Additional heat advisories may become necessary if current forecast trends continue.
Looking Ahead
Long-range forecast guidance suggests upper-level ridging may continue strengthening into the middle of next week.
If this pattern develops as currently projected, hotter temperatures and lower rain chances could become the dominant weather story across Arkansas.
While isolated summertime thunderstorms can never be completely ruled out, organized rainfall chances appear limited once the ridge begins strengthening.
Southwest Arkansas Weather Bottom Line Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday. Additional storms may develop Tuesday, although coverage should be lower. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but stronger storms could produce gusty winds. Storm chances decrease significantly by Wednesday. Temperatures begin climbing again during the second half of the week. Hot and humid conditions return with increasing heat concerns Thursday and beyond.
