Forecast Discussions

In-depth weather analysis, outlooks, and storm discussions from Southwest Arkansas Weather

An Active Weather Pattern Ahead: Halloween Rain Chances & Potential Severe Storms Next Week

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Southwest Arkansas Weather After weeks of predominantly dry weather across Southwest Arkansas, a change in our weather pattern is finally on the horizon! Multiple weather systems are expected to impact the region over the coming days, bringing opportunities for much-needed rainfall and potentially some stronger thunderstorms early next week. While there are still several uncertainties to work through, confidence continues to increase that our region will see at least some beneficial rainfall.

Oct 28, 20265 min read

Forecast Discussion

Fall Temperatures This Weekend, But Warmer Weather Returns Next Week

Cooler, fall-like temperatures will continue through the weekend. Temperatures will begin warming early next week, with above-average warmth returning. Some locations could approach record-high temperatures late next week. Little to no rainfall is expected over the next 7 days, allowing drought conditions to worsen.

Oct 17, 20265 min

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Forecast Discussion

Ridge Of High Pressure Keeps on Trucking... Will The Tropics Stop It?

September is starting with a continuation of the hot and dry pattern that has dominated much of the region. An upper-level ridge remains firmly in control across Arkansas, keeping temperatures well above seasonal averages and limiting meaningful chances for rainfall. A Heat Advisory is in effect today for portions of Arkansas, including areas of eastern and central Arkansas, the Arkansas River Valley, and portions of west-central Arkansas. While a few isolated showers or thunderstorms may return this weekend, rainfall chances remain low and widespread relief from the heat is not expected.

Sep 1, 20265 min

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Heat & Summer Weather

THE SUMMER ARKANSAS COULDN'T ESCAPE THE HEAT

Before the heat domes and excessive heat warnings we talk about today, Arkansas experienced one of the most brutal summers in its weather history. It was 1980, and if you think this summer has been hot, imagine an Arkansas summer where triple-digit temperatures seemed to become the rule rather than the exception. In Little Rock, 1980 produced a staggering 47 days with temperatures reaching at least 100°F — the most in the city's recorded history.

Aug 17, 20264 min

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Forecast Discussion

A Brief Break From the Heat Before Summer Roars Back

After a stretch of dangerous heat, Southwest Arkansas will enjoy a brief break to start the week with lower humidity and slightly cooler temperatures. This comfortable pattern won't last long, however, as high pressure strengthens over the southern United States and another heat wave develops later this week. Rain chances will remain very limited through the middle of the week before isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms return by Friday and continue into the weekend.

Aug 3, 20263 min

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Forecast Discussion

Southwest Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion Issued: July 6, 2026

A fairly typical summertime weather pattern will continue across Southwest Arkansas to begin the week. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Tuesday, with the greatest storm coverage expected during the afternoon and early evening hours. Widespread severe weather is not expected. However, the atmosphere will become quite unstable during the afternoon, meaning a few stronger thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Storm chances begin to decrease by Wednesday as an upper-level disturbance moves east of Arkansas. High pressure will then attempt to rebuild across the region, bringing hotter temperatures and increasing heat concerns by the end of the week.

Jul 6, 20263 min

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Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion: Heat Continues as We Track Increasing Storm Chances for the July 4th Weekend

Summer weather remains firmly in place across Southwest Arkansas as hot and humid conditions continue through the remainder of the week. Afternoon temperatures will climb well into the 90s each day, while heat index values will frequently reach the lower 100s. Although the heat will remain the primary concern through midweek, rain chances will gradually increase beginning Wednesday as the upper-level ridge shifts eastward. Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will become more common heading into the Independence Day weekend. At this time, the Fourth of July is not expected to be a washout, but outdoor plans may have to contend with isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.

Jun 30, 20264 min

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Heat & Summer Weather

Hot & Humid Conditions Ahead for The Weekend & Early Next Week (June 27th, thru July 1st, 2026)

Hot & humid conditions ahead for the weekend and early next week. Heat advisories look to be in store, and nearing extreme levels.

Jun 26, 20262 min

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Forecast Discussion

Southwest Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion June 23, 2026

An active weather pattern will continue across Arkansas through Friday as multiple disturbances move through a northwest flow pattern aloft. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected between Tuesday night and early Friday, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall, damaging wind gusts, and frequent lightning. The greatest forecast challenge over the next 48 hours will be determining exactly where thunderstorm complexes develop and track. Small changes in the position of these disturbances can significantly impact which communities receive the heaviest rain and strongest storms. By the weekend, rain chances will diminish as high pressure begins building into the region. This will lead to a return of hotter temperatures and increasing heat concerns by early next week.

Jun 23, 20265 min

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Severe Weather

Severe Weather Possible before Sunrise on Monday morning (6/22/26)

A line of strong to severe storms with heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible Monday morning!

Jun 22, 20261 min

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Severe Weather

Southwest Arkansas Weather Weekend Outlook (June 19–21, 2026)

An active weather pattern will continue across Southwest Arkansas through the weekend as several disturbances move through a northwest flow pattern aloft. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible from Friday through Sunday, with some storms capable of producing strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. While widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out, especially Friday and again during the weekend if organized thunderstorm complexes develop across the region.

Jun 18, 20265 min

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Tropical Weather

Tropical Storm Arthur is the first officially named storm of 2026. No impacts to Arkansas are expected.

Jun 17, 20263 min

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Forecast Discussion

Southwest Arkansas Weather Weekly Forecast Discussion (June 16th-20th, 2026)

A fairly typical mid-June weather pattern is expected across Southwest Arkansas this week, featuring warm temperatures, periods of sunshine, and occasional thunderstorm chances. While most locations will remain dry through Wednesday, a stronger cold front is expected to move through the region on Thursday, bringing the best opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will generally remain near seasonal averages through the period, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Jun 16, 20265 min

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Forecast Discussion

Evening Weather Discussion For June 12th, 2026

Hot and humid conditions will continue across Southwest Arkansas through Saturday, with heat index values approaching 100°F in many locations during the afternoon hours. While a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out, most areas will remain dry through Saturday evening. Attention then turns to a wetter pattern beginning late Saturday night and continuing through Monday as multiple disturbances move into the region. This setup will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms, with some locations receiving 1 to 3 inches of rainfall and locally higher amounts. The potential for localized flash flooding will increase, especially in areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. After the rain moves out by Tuesday, temperatures will gradually climb once again, with hot and humid conditions returning during the second half of next week.

Jun 13, 20265 min

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