Southwest Arkansas Weather Weekly Forecast Discussion (June 16th-20th, 2026)
A fairly typical mid-June weather pattern is expected across Southwest Arkansas this week, featuring warm temperatures, periods of sunshine, and occasional thunderstorm chances. While most locations will remain dry through Wednesday, a stronger cold front is expected to move through the region on Thursday, bringing the best opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will generally remain near seasonal averages through the period, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Tuesday & Wednesday: A stalled frontal boundary remains positioned just south of Arkansas across northern Louisiana. While a few isolated showers may develop near the Arkansas-Louisiana state line, most of Southwest Arkansas is expected to remain dry through midweek.
Cloud cover will be greatest across southern portions of the region, while partly sunny skies dominate elsewhere. Temperatures will continue to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s during the afternoon hours with moderate humidity levels.
Meanwhile, forecasters continue to monitor a disturbance along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast. While development into a tropical system remains possible, current forecast trends keep any direct impacts well south and east of Arkansas.
Thursday: Best Rain & Storm Chances: Attention turns to a cold front expected to move into Arkansas on Thursday.
As the front encounters warm, humid, and unstable air, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the state. Current projections suggest the highest rain chances will occur during the afternoon and evening hours.
A few stronger storms may be capable of producing:
Gusty winds Frequent lightning Brief heavy rainfall
At this time, the severe weather threat appears limited, but portions of Arkansas remain under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts will vary considerably due to the scattered nature of thunderstorms, but localized heavier totals will be possible where storms repeatedly move across the same areas.
Friday & Weekend Outlook: The cold front will move south of the region by Friday, allowing slightly drier air to filter into portions of Arkansas. Morning temperatures may briefly become more comfortable compared to recent days.
However, the overall weather pattern remains somewhat unsettled. Several upper-level disturbances are expected to move through the region, keeping at least low-end chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend.
By Saturday, upper-level high pressure will begin rebuilding across the southern United States. As a result, temperatures will gradually trend warmer once again while maintaining occasional storm chances.
Temperature Outlook: High Temperatures: Upper 80s to lower 90s through the week Low Temperatures: Mid 60s to mid 70s Slightly cooler conditions expected behind Thursday's cold front Warmer temperatures likely return by the weekend
Southwest Arkansas Weather Bottom Line: Mostly dry conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. A few storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Slightly cooler and drier air arrives Friday. Isolated storm chances continue into the weekend. Temperatures remain near normal for mid-June, generally ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s.
